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Additional resources for External Imbalances and Policy Constraints in the 1990s: Papers of the Fifteenth Annual Conference of the International Study Group
Then from 1983 he changed tack, pursuing a tough monetary policy using the EMS as an excuse (Minford, 1989c); to bring about convergence of inflation with Germany money was tightened more than there, so that by 1990 the two countries' inflation rates are the same. One finds that in the early period French real wages lie above the prediction based on pre-1979 data, whereas in the later period they lie below. Both results are consistent with our proposed correction. In other respects, the model's set-up is quickly described under the two EMS regimes.
5 per cent of GOP - is the most that seems realistic for the highly indebted countries. A similar target has been assigned to the remaining developing countries. The final region is the CMEA countries. These have recently been close to balance. If the reforms currently under way in those countries are successful and they are integrated into the global economy by 1995, it is likely that they will by then be able to finance substantial current account deficits and make profitable use of the resulting resources.
A number of early studies computed comparative descriptive statistics for variables of interest, pre- and post-EMS, for EMS and non-EMS countries, the latter being a control. These include Collins (1987), de Grauwe (1987), Giavazzi and Giovannini (1989), Ungerer et at. (1986). Vaubel (1989) offers a useful summary of these and of a number of other German studies (in German, for details see Vaubel) in the following negative terms: To sum up: the exchange rate mechanism of the EMS does not seem to have contributed to reducing nominal effective exchange rate variations, inflation and inflation differences of the member currencies, or to increasing intra-ERM trade, investment and growth in the member countries.