By Frank Camm, Lauren Caston, Alexander C. Hou, Forrest E. Morgan, Alan J. Vick

Provides a risk-management technique might aid senior Air strength leaders to (1) concentration making plans at the so much salient threats, (2) achieve larger readability at the hazards linked to replacement classes of motion throughout a number of futures, (3) keep a feeling of the chronic uncertainties linked to any coverage selection, and (4) successfully speak their judgments approximately probability to key audiences.

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2. 10 • It appears likely that treating risk this way would lead decision­ makers to make choices similar to those they would make if they used an approach to risk assessment based on more complete characterization of subjective probability distributions. Appendix A explains in more detail why these advantages led us to characterize risk in this way. Chapter Five explains how we assess probabilities and magnitudes for potential threats, and Appendixes D and E illustrate the approach with specific examples.

In its mission, the Air Force conducts activities designed to deter specified activities by countries and groups that endanger the national security of the United States and to strengthen countries and groups important to the security of the United States. S. national security. If the Air Force has too much of one thing and not enough of another, it may fail to deter enemies that it could have deterred, strengthen friends that it could have strengthened, or defeat enemies when they threaten the United States.

This can help leaders see implications of their beliefs that may not feel intuitive. To the extent that leaders come to accept the value of these counterintuitive implications, the final decision may improve further. Formal risk assessment can potentially assist decisionmakers in one final way as they choose a preferred package. Methods are available to aggregate the information developed above in a way that can offer decisionmakers a suggested final choice. In all likelihood, wise leaders will not delegate their responsibility to choose to a set of specialists who can apply these tools; by definition, formal methods simplify, abstracting from reality to make any problem tractable.

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